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East Pacific/2015/03E/Archive/24
Public advisory HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 24 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER 4:00 AM CDT MON TUE 16 2015 ...CARLOS A MYSTERY.. SUMMARY OF 10:00 PM CDT...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION... 17.3N 103.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KT...75 MPH...120 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT...6 MPH...9 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 4:00 am CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 17.3N, 103.7W, or about 100 miles (160 km) west-southwest of Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds in the storm were 75 mph (120 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure was 992 millibars (inHg; 29.30 inHg), and the system was moving west-northwest at 5 knots (6 mph, 9 km/h). Carlos is expected to change little in intensity over the next day as it parallels the southwestern coast of Mexico. Steady weakening should begin thereafter. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 10:00 am CDT. $$ Forecaster YE Discussion HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER 10:00 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Although Carlos is not a very well-organized hurricane, the storm appears to have a compact core, and a decent CDO for a storm this size of sub -70C convection. While most of the deep convection is displaced to the south due to moderate shear, current intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB still support 65 knts, but this is generous. Keep in mind that given the low CMISS ADT values, these Dvorak estimates are highly debatable, as if the storm was classified with a curved band pattern, it would merit a T1.5 or T2.0. Water vapor images show that Carlos continues to be hindered by northerly wind shear on the order of 10 to 15 knots from a large anticyclone to the cyclone's northwest, and this is about what the SHIPS is showing, though it is also less than what the CMISS has. However, it is worth pointing out that microcanes like Carlos are terrible at fighting off shear, so 10 knts of shear is actually a lot in this case. However, global models indicate that the upper-level environment will become conducive again and stay that way for a few days, As such, statistical guidance like SHIPS and LGEM have become a little more bullish on further development, but given how off they've been so far, I have my doubts on this system lasting much longer. Although all global models appear to be under-initializing this system (or in the case of the 18z HWRF, the only regional model that has the ability to initialize this kind of system overdoes upwelling), they all agree on rapid weakening over the next few days. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, but weakens this even faster. A subtropical ridge located over northern Mexico is acting to steer Carlos on a continued west-northwest motion. This track is expected to continue for the next 36 to 48 hours. Thereafter, Carlos is expected to take on more of a northerly motion as it feels the effects of a weakness in the ridge enhanced by Tropical Storm Bill, a rare thriving Gulf of Mexico system. The new forecast track is an update from the previous one. However, if Carlos gets weaker than expected, a more westerly course is likely since it is more likely to be steered by the low level flow. INIT 16/0900Z 17.3N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.5N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.4N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 19.9N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH..POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 20.6N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 21.4N 107.0W 15 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster YE